Study estimates healthcare costs, resource use linked to COVID-19

Editor's Note

The spread of COVID-19 in the US could result in hundreds of billions of dollars in direct medical costs, according to this study partially funded by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ).

Using AHRQ data and other sources, researchers developed computer models to simulate the financial impact that COVID-19 could have on the US healthcare system.

The models also quantify the potential magnitude of the use of resources such as ventilators and hospital beds that would be required under various scenarios.

A single symptomatic COVID-19 infections would cost a median of $3,045 in direct medical costs.

If 20% of the population were to become infected, there would be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and 1.6 million ventilators used, costing $163.4 billion in direct medical costs.

If  80% of the population became infected there would be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 249.5 million hospital bed days, 10.7 million ICU admissions, and 6.5 million ventilators used. In this scenario, direct medical costs could reach $654 billion over the course of the pandemic.

The significant difference in costs by attack rate show the value of strategies that keep the attack as low as possible, and the potential cost of “herd immunity,” the researchers say.